For much of the midterm season, Democrats had lagged behind Republicans in generic ballot polling. Much of this shift against Democrats can be attributed to global inflation, lack of action on much of President Biden’s Build Back Better campaign promises, and the ever-declining standard of living.
However, following the Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which overturned a half-century precedent established in Roe v. Wade, Democrats began leading Republicans in generic ballot polling.
In a poll conducted by NPR/Marist, Democrats now lead Republicans 48% to 41%. In a Morning Consult poll, Democrats lead Republicans, 45% to 42%. And in a poll conducted by Yahoo/YouGov, Democrats lead Republicans, 45% to 38%.
This change in attitude is consistent with polling on the issue of abortion, a majority of Americans consistently approve of the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision and abortion access. As well as the Supreme Court’s abysmal 25% approval rating, which is a historic-low for the court.
Historically, the incumbent president’s party is often defeated in the midterm elections, so Democrats already face an uphill battle.
Democrats will not only need to defend every Senate seat up for re-election, but they will also need to flip at least two Republican seats to overcome the Sinema-Manchin roadblock. Meanwhile in the House, Democrats will have to defend every seat they currently hold, since they only maintain a slight lead over House Republicans.
Democrats have an opportunity to channel the American people’s anger and frustration in the upcoming midterms, but first they’ll have to convince voters to give the party one more chance to deliver substantial change.
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Ben brings over four years of experience as a political communications manager and graphic designer to Texas Signal, where he serves as our Social Media Manager and does everything from designing graphics and posting on social media, to writing a column about current events. Ben was the Social Media Director for College Democrats of America during the historic 2018 midterms when Democrats swept the House of Representatives. Ben was a first-generation university student and graduated from Texas State University with a Bachelor’s degree in Public Administration.
